In this paper, we present a new framework for understanding AI’s labor market impacts, and test it against early data, finding limited evidence that AI has affected employment to date. Our goal is to establish an approach for measuring how AI is affecting employment, and to revisit these analyses periodically. This approach won't capture every channel through which AI could reshape the labor market, but by laying this groundwork now, before meaningful effects have emerged, we hope future findings will more reliably identify economic disruption than post-hoc analyses.
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“This is sort of choose your own adventure,” Ryan Pettit, a technical fellow with Boeing’s flight-controls division, told me. We were sitting in the pilot seats of a multipurpose simulator cab. From the inside, it looked like the flight deck of a 777, complete with banks of gauges, switches, and digital screens, and a view of Mt. Rainier through the windshield. From the outside, it looked like a giant, one-eyed robot: a cabin perched on three mechanical legs more than two stories tall. In months of chasing turbulence, the closest I’d come to it on a commercial flight was in Texas, when a thunderstorm struck my plane just as it was preparing to land in Austin. “Folks, it looks like it’ll be smooth sailing for the first hour and forty-five minutes,” the pilot had warned, as we left New York. “Then it’s all downhill from there.” But this simulator was nothing if not reliable. It was turbulence on demand.
In 2025, some Google Pixel 4a and Pixel 6a owners have received mandatory updates that purposefully degrade the performance of the battery to prevent overheating. Your phone may have been working fine before, but Google issued these updates as a preventative measure, and not every device was affected. Similarly, some Pixel 7a devices may encounter battery swelling issues.